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Karagin
Imperial Karagin Army
Imperial General
Joined: 04-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 4120
Location: United States
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 Posted: 17-Jan-2003 18:36 Post subject: What if Kurtia had not... |
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Gone after the Dragoons during the 4th War and actually used his forces to counter or react to the attacks by the Suns and Commonwealth? Would this have changed the outcome of this part of the 4th War?
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Karagin
Only the dead have seen the end of war. - Plato
"Wasted trip Man. Nobody said nuthin' about lockin' horns with no tigers." Oddball
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Jade_Dragon
8th Sword of Light
Sho-sho
Joined: 05-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 1325
Location: United States
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| Posted: 18-Jan-2003 09:25 Post subject: RE: What if Kurtia had not... |
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Let me think....DUH YES!
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The JadeDragon
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Horhiro
Draconis Combine
Samurai
Joined: 04-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 1625
Location: United States
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| Posted: 18-Jan-2003 19:05 Post subject: RE: What if Kurtia had not... |
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Well the Dragoons would not have been part of his forces by then even if he had not battled them. The Ryuken would certainly have been in better shape though. I
t probably wouldn't have mattered on the Steiner front as a huge counter attack by Theodore was already in place. If not for the sabotage of the his jumpsheet fleet, by the decadent Lyrans it would have gone very well for the DCMS over there.
I actually think it was a good thing for the Combine because it showed that Takashi needed to be put to pasture and for Theodore to rise to power, which overall has been a boon to the Combine.
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"I have lived my life trying to be a virtuous man. The Dragon admires tenacity, and the code of the samurai upholds it as well." -Minobu Tetsuhara
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Paul
Capellan Confederation
Sang-wei
Joined: 25-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 255
Location: United States
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| Posted: 19-Jan-2003 04:57 Post subject: RE: What if Kurtia had not... |
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If the Dragoons had moved on without interference from the Draconis Combine, the difference would have been minor. Thw Dragoons would have been mostly fresh then, but so would the DC units they'd likely face. However, the Dragoons would be part of the operations by the Fed Suns to stall the DC while the hit on the Cap Conf. Hanse likely suspected he might lose a bit on the DC front, the essence would be damage control.
If the Dragoons were still in the Dragon's employ, there'd likely be a bigger loss of worlds on the DC side of things, but all that'd accomplish is Hanse backing off a bit earlier. Even with the Dragoons, I dont think that the DC'd be able to strike at any world where it'd really hurt without overextending themselves.
I've long thought that Hanse picked his targets poorly that war. The DC was relatively the greatest threat, so he should have started with them, attacking the CC in 39 instead. He probably wouldn't have gotten all the way to Luthien, but tearing off a Military District or two would've weakened them to the point where he could leave them alone for a few decades while he enforces his Star League elsewhere.
A solid victory in 39 would have likely caused the FWL to sign on rather then become target #3, the DC and the CC following suit as soon as they could swallow their pride.
Paul
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Vampire
Free Worlds League
Lieutenant Colonel
Joined: 05-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 912
Location: Spain
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| Posted: 19-Jan-2003 08:05 Post subject: RE: What if Kurtia had not... |
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Karagin, have you seen my "Saving Private Capellan" thread in the CBT Inner Sphere board?
Sadly, the discussion ran aground because of the hardcore Davion supporters, but at least we outlined the basics of the Fed Suns invading the Combine instead of the Capellan Confederation in the 4th SW, due to Max Liao being deposed and killed by his son Tormana Liao in early 3026.
If that's the case, the Combine is in dire straits, depending of what the Lyrans do. For the record, Wolf's Dragoons are out of the picture, they simply became disgruntled with House Kurita and got a new contract with the Fed Suns. However, since there was no fight in Misery nor the ensuing bloodfeud between WD and the DC, that means the Combine stll has the 5 Ryuken regiments and the 8th Sword of Light, so things balance each other.
If however, the FedSuns decides to go after the "easy" Capellan prey regardless, then not only the FS is going to find a much stronger and effective defense that can only be overcome by weight of numbers, (that the FS has) but it leaves the Draconis border almost defenseless. Depending of what the Lyrans do, and they are not going to be overly enthusiastic about taking on the Combine alone to support Hanse's war of aggression against the Confederation, the Combine can easily accept the loss of planets to the Lyrans as long as they are exceeded by the gains in the Federated front. From the Kuritan mindset, losing planets to the Steiners that can be recovered later on is not a big deal, compared with the strategic opportunity they would have of dealing a severe blow to their most dangerous enemy.
If Hanse attacks the Capellans, that are prepared to fight this time, then he would be commiting a great mistake. I'd expect the Combine to take half the Draconis March at least, and drive all the way to Robinson, even if they are losing Rasalhague and suffering big losses in territory against the Lyrans.
Perhaps the Kuritans might even make a push for New Avalon.
If however, Hanse Davion decides to invade the Combine, then the Kuritans are in deep trouble, but I still think that without a major Lyran effort, the FS would get bogged down in a invasion Combine and would give the Capellans the chance of scoring major strategic victories in the Capellan March, cutting the March in half.
If the Combine faces only the Fed Suns, my bet is that they would be bloodied but not beaten, would lose a big number of planets and 50% casualties, but the FedSuns losses would be high too, and is doubtful that their conquests would balance the losses against the Combine.
If the Lyrans come into the picture with full force, again, Free Worlder and Capellan intervention would relieve some of the pressure on the Combine and prevent the FedCom alliance to strike the mortal blow. The Combine would lose most of Dieron, Rasalhague and half its army, but the Federated and the Lyrans would also take high casualties and the League and Confederation position would have improved considerably, forcing the FedCom into the negotiation table.
If however, Hanse decides to settle scores with the Capellans, in a sort of war of 3039 against them, then it's not only doubtufl he will regain all the territory lost, at best he would be back to 3025 borders, but then it gives the Combine the opportunity of recovering.
Given the balance of forces, it takes two full scale invasions, at least, to kill of one Successor state.
If the FedCom alliance manages to launch two wars against the Combine, and not lose too much against the FWL and the CC then the Succession Wars can end with a Davion victory.
Most likely outcome, is that after the 4th SW, there's a negotiated settlement, in wich case House Steiner would be the victor.
In the precarious balance of the 3025 situation, the Capellan Confederation and the Draconis Combine are the ones that are more at risk. Depending of wich is attacked, they face either total defeat, a moderate defeat that would be a relief (it could be much worse) or if they aren't targetted by the FS, their greatest strategic opportunity since the SSWW started. If Davion splits his forces even, then the result is another stalemate, with gains and losses not being decisive, and wich forces a negotiated settlement in the long run.
The Free Worlds League faces catastrophe if they are invaded by the Lyrans. But if the Lyrans sit out of the war, or attack the Combine instead, the League can profit either from sitting out of the war, or launching a preemptive strike against the Lyrans. I'd put their potential gains as moderate, as these would be offset by internal unrest (Andurien Revolt)
The Lyrans really are better not letting themselves being dragged into a war by Hanse Davion. As it is, they will end being the most powerful House in the long run. If they feel aggressive, they could invade the League to score an easy victory and harden their army before attacking the Combine.
The alliance with the Fed Suns is only good for them if it's to defeat the Combine, removing the threat it suppones, and recovering lost worlds to the Combine. Only those recently lost with still some pro-Lyran feeling.
The Federated Suns has the most to gain from a war of aggression and the most to lose.
The Capellan Confederation only goal is survival. Achieving it it's a victory for them.
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Memento audare semper
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Karagin
Imperial Karagin Army
Imperial General
Joined: 04-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 4120
Location: United States
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| Posted: 19-Jan-2003 12:36 Post subject: RE: What if Kurtia had not... |
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Actually no I didn't see your Saving Thread at CBT...
I do like your overview on the events and they make a lot of sense and very well thought out.
I think this thread is one that really shows how the fans see things, excellent ideas generator and really has given up some new questions about the events of the 4th War.
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Karagin
Only the dead have seen the end of war. - Plato
"Wasted trip Man. Nobody said nuthin' about lockin' horns with no tigers." Oddball
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