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Vampire
Free Worlds League
Lieutenant Colonel
Joined: 05-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 912
Location: Spain
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 Posted: 07-Mar-2005 07:48 Post subject: Alternate 4SW: Lyran invasion of the Free Words League |
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In my quest to write up an alternate 4th Succession War history wich is more plausible, interesting and not as biased as the "official" one, I present you with this what if.
Assume House Steiner is not too happy about supporting a Davion war of aggression against the Capellans instead of fighting the common enemy, the Draconians, and that the Archon doesn't feel like the LCAF can take on the Kuritans alone just yet.
There's another strategic option, one rightfully feared by Janos Marik. Give the coup d' grace to the Free Worlds League that is on the verge of collapse, taking advantage of that window of opportunity. It's a campaign with good odds, high chances of success, goog potential gains, and that can serve to test the new LCAF and get battle experience, with the addition of securing a flank, before dealing with the Dragon.
I think it's a decision that goes in the best interests of the Commonwealth even if the Federated Suns do attack the Combine. From a profit/loss gain it makes sense to wait until the Combine has shifted most of its forces to deal with the Suns and wait for both sides to bled white. Then the Lyrans move on against a weakened Combine, and have a much stronger bargaining position, not being subordinate to the Federated Suns.
So how likely is this scenario? Also, what are the chances of the League?
You can assume that you haven't anything to worry on the Capellan front because their Liaos have their hands full preparing for a Davion invasion. Assume a Marik-Liao Non Aggression Pact, or if you prefer, a Concord of Kapteyn that has real substance.
Of course, you don't know about the Andurien secession, but you can take for granted that you can't count on their forces and they will stay home.
Questions to consider:
1) Would be the M-L Pact a deterrence to invasion by the Lyrans? After all, but for Andurien and a token presence of a few regiments in the Liao border, most of the Free Worlds military can be shifted to the Lyran front. Or would the Lyrans attack anyway since they have a big enough advantage, apart from the possibility of a shattering of the League under the blow.
2) If the League show of force and resolve is enough to deter the Lyrans, then that makes it very doubtful than lacking the nerve to attack the League the Steiners attack the Combine. With the bulk of the FWLM on the border, and its ability to redeploy and switch to the offensive, even if it's just a campaign of raids, it would be foolhardy to weaken the defense on that border to mount an offensive against the DC. I reckon that Katrina Steiner would be very conscious that his predecessor, Alessandro, lost the throne precisely due to Marik attacks taking advantage of weaknesses in the defense.
There are about half a dozen combinations depending on wich realm launchs a major offensive against who, and the possible reactions of the others. But I will narrow them to these two questions:
A) In the event of a Lyran invasion, can the League hold?
Would it breakup with every province looking for a separate peace? Or the external threat would instead be a catalyst to rally the people around the Captain General as it happened during the Civil War of 3014?
B) If the Lyrans focus on a Combine invasion, what if the League instead of remaining passive like in canon, seized the opportunity and switched from a defensive posture to a determined offensive? Considering the predatory nature of League campaigns (read the Replevin doctrine) success against the Lyrans would give a huge boost to Janos Marik and enable him to leave a pacified realm with more secure borders to his son Thomas. A successful invasion of the Commonwealth could solidify the Captain General position.
Whatever the case, the Andurien Seccession is a time bomb waiting to happen (together with the litheral time bomb planted by Duncan Marik) but in case B the consequences would not be so dire. Now that I mention Duncan, his position as commander of the Marik Militia would mean he would get a good part of the glory in the case of a successful campaign against the Steiners, wich in turn would fuel his ambitions and trigger his coup, instead of stalling it.
Let's hear your thoughts!
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Memento audare semper
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Seraph
Blighted Sun Battalion
2nd Company
"Seraph's Slaughter"
Major
Joined: 11-Mar-2004 00:00
Posts: 1744
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| Posted: 07-Mar-2005 17:06 Post subject: RE: Alternate 4SW: Lyran invasion of the Free Words League |
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I think that the Isle of Skye would be against the push into Marik spacec. With the potential for regaining lost worlds from the Combine handed to them, they would push hard for the attack against the Combine and could possibly throw a monkie wrench into any plans to change that.
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If ignorance is bliss, then why are you so miserable?
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AlexxKnight
Federated Suns
Colonel
Joined: 11-Feb-2002 00:00
Posts: 787
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| Posted: 07-Mar-2005 20:25 Post subject: RE: Alternate 4SW: Lyran invasion of the Free Words League |
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Would the FWL attack the Capellans at the same time the FedSuns did. We all know tha tthere is really no love lost there either. But it has never really been to thee benefit of the FWL to do so. It might have some of the same effects as attacking the LC.
I really odn;t think that the LC can afford to attack the FWL here. the DC is too much of a threat. Perhaps a few raids to discourage the FWL form invading the LC, but that would probably be it. Take care of the bigger enemy first, then get the little guy.
_________________
Alexx Knight, Lance Sgt.
Command Company, Crimson Janissaries
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The path of the righteous man is beset on all sides by the inequities of the selfish and the tyranny of evil men. . . And you
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